We got a comment that was all about the “blue ocean” theory.
If you’re unfamiliar, the blue ocean theory is a way to categorize markets. Basically, in the ocean, where there’s food, there are predators. Where there’s red ocean, you know there are predators eating the food. So if you want to find a place where there are no predators, you look for blue water.
The question came up in the context of: is that blue ocean worth me swimming in, or is it a food-less wasteland that will suck up my time because there’s no red in the water for a reason (i.e. there’s no food there)? Is there a way to tell whether blue water is worth swimming in?
This is a great question. I’m sure that smarter people than me have tackled this, but I’m going to look at it from a Strengths perspective. Especially because I’m sure that some of you are considering a market shift in 2020 to look for blue water.
I want to say two things about the red-waters for just a second.
- Just because the water is red doesn’t mean that you can’t still make money. Good books sell, even in crowded markets. Not all good books sell, though. But that’s true no matter where you are. Remember the four factors of success? (1) Hard work, (2) Talent, (3) Luck, and (4) Timing. So there will be good books (that meet #1 and #2) that don’t sell (because they don’t meet #3 and #4).
- If you’re looking for a sure-bet, you’re safer in red waters. It’s more likely that books will sell where a market has already been found than it is to sell in a place where the readers don’t have language for what they want yet.
Okay, now on to the blue water crowd.
There’s always a group of us (Achiever, Competition, Futuristic, Strategic, Focus, Significance, etc.) looking for blue water. We know that being the first person into a market (or even just on the early side of the market) gives you the potential for a major gold mine. It’s also the place you’re most likely to “breakout.” And a lot of us want to break out. So, let’s get the two things about blue-waters out of the way:
- New markets are inherently risky. It’s just as likely that you won’t sell a single book as it is that you will break out, when it comes to finding a blue-water market. Because the thing we don’t know is… is there food under all that crystalline sky water? We don’t know until we dive in.
- There is no such thing as a blue-water predictor. Even people who say they are creating trends are only doing so because they’re reading where the market is headed and getting it right. It’s not possible to “force” a market to create because the market is a subconscious entity more like a collective groupthink. You can absolutely capitalize on something that’s already there, but it would take too much individual pressure to “force” a market to go somewhere it’s not already going. So… even people who are claiming they can see blue water, they are still just guessing. They might guess right a lot, and that’s generally not luck–it’s reading subconscious cues and patterns–but it’s different from “making” a market. Markets aren’t made, they’re discovered.
So, if we’re assuming that the subconscious desires for certain kinds of books are out there in the collective subconscious (or unconscious), and we’re trying to tap into them, how do we know if the market hole we see will yield a gold mine?
I mean… we don’t. We never know. But there are definitely ways to predict. Let’s start with a few.
- When you start to see people getting tired of what they already have. (This is the biggest reason that companies come out with “new” or “improved” products in the same line. They know that all systems tend toward entropy which means that humans tend toward boredom which means markets will eventually decline if they’re not infused. So companies are always reinventing their products.) Back before alien sci-fi became a thing, we started seeing our PNR (paranormal romance) fans (thousands of them) complaining about how there was nothing “good” in PNR anymore. They were looking for something else. They were restless about not getting the “new” stuff like they had been. Not a year later, we started seeing the alien trend, and it was basically all the PNR people who got bored with shifters and wanted something else. So, when you hear of people getting “tired” of something, en masse, it’s a sign that something will shift, because they’re on the lookout for something new.
- When major cultural events impact the international or national psyche. (I would say “community” psyche, because I do think that events like Cockygate can, for instance, change a community and have an impact on the market, too. But they have to be pretty major to have that kind of an impact.) There’s a reason that “Baby Boomers” are called that–after the war, people came home and made babies. That had an impact on the economy. So, anytime there’s a major event, it has an opportunity to impact markets.
- When a breakout creative work shakes up the market. Think of something like Ready Player One or Harry Potter. Hunger Games. Twilight. Books that are such a big breakout, they’re getting people outside their genre to read a new genre. These things can create market holes behind them, and if you already have work ready in that area, you could be part of the breakout blue water. Probably not getting true “blue water” if you have to create the product when you see the breakout–because by the time you realize it’s a breakout, the audience is already hungry enough that the sharks are all jumping in.
- When several good products come out at one time. Several years ago, for instance, there were three major new shifter series in paranormal romance. The names of the writers got big quickly and it created a lot of market need for shifter romance. All three of the series that were happening at the time (one was NY and two were indie) created a market demand that was higher than the supply at the time. But of course, after a while, the water got super red and the readers got bored and they shifted. (lol. shifted.) This has happened in other subgenera, as well. but that’s the one I saw the most up close and personal, so that’s the one I know from the inside. These aren’t necessarily things you can create. But you can absolutely see the pockets when they happen. This can also happen on television (or in movies).
Those are the four main factors I’ve seen. I’m sure there are more. (And other Context/Futuristic/Strategic people will probably have thoughts about that.) But I want to hit one more time: there is no guaranteed way to know. If you haven’t heard of the idea diffusion curve before, what I’m about to say will not make 100% of sense, so I can try to explain that more if anyone hasn’t heard of it, but here we go.
There is a natural bell curve for the adoption of ideas. People’s likelihood to adopt something when they hear about it fits a pattern. So, if you tend to be an “early adopter” on that curve, you’ll be quicker to take advantage of the patterns when you come upon them, but you’ll also take more risks, so you won’t always have success. The nature of early adoption is that you’re batting .500 (roughly speaking) because you take more risks than the late adopters (who are more likely to find the “sure bets”, but also less likely to take the risks). This isn’t to say that late-adopters can’t “find themselves” in the midst of blue water. But it’s going to be harder to convince them to take a chance when they see it.
All that to say, no, I don’t think there’s a legitimate way to predict what’s going to be blue water and what isn’t. But I also know that there are some people who can just see these patterns, and I would listen to them more than I would listen to a set of guidelines. Because the bottom line is, most of us don’t read patterns quick enough or deep enough to see these things. Still, it’s always interesting to talk about them, in theory.
This was a great question, and lots of fun to think about! I’m sure there will be follow-up questions, so throw them at me. 😊
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